Pakistan is confronting a severe water crisis in 2025. Inflows from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers are down around 15%, while key reservoirs such as Tarbela and Mangla are nearing “dead levels,” raising alarm for our farms, cities, and economic stability.
Declining River Inflows & Rising Outflows
IRSA reports Pakistan is discharging 11,180 cusecs more water than it receives, intensifying shortages.
The inflow from western rivers has dropped by approximately 20% in Punjab, severely impacting irrigation.
💦 Reservoir Levels on Brink
| Dam | Level Above Dead Mark | Threshold | Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarbela | ~7–9 ft | 1,402 ft | Critically low |
| Mangla | ~28–38 ft | 1,050 ft | Dangerously close |
Water shortages for Punjab are projected at 20% and 16% for Sindh through the Rabi seasons.
Infrastructure is currently operating in “run-of-the-river” mode—with limited storage capacity available.
🌾 Impact on Agriculture, Food Supply & Trade
Kharif crop production in Punjab (cotton, maize) has already dropped 30%, maize by 15%, and wheat production is down by 9%.
The agriculture sector’s GDP contribution declined to 23.54% in FY25, down from 24.03%.
The crisis threatens exports in agri-commodities, impacting national trade and rural livelihoods.
Geopolitical Angle: Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty
Geopolitical Angle: Suspension of Indus Waters TreatyIn April 2025, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty and halted data-sharing. This move has disrupted water inflows, particularly from the Chenab.
Reservoir levels dropped sharply following India’s downstream flushing operations in Jammu & Kashmir.
Farmers in Punjab warn that India “can starve us,” underlining water’s strategic importance.
🛠 Strategic Actions Required
Diplomatic Engagement: Urge India to reinstate treaty and data-sharing to stabilize water flows.
Efficient Water Management: Scale up urgent water rotation and rationing to conserve finite resources.
Irrigation & Crop Restructuring: Promote efficient irrigation (drip, sprinkle) and drought-resistant crops.
Infrastructure Investment: Expedite dam expansion, canal lining, and small reservoirs to augment storage.
Regional Coordination: Enhance province-federal cooperation for unified water policy implementation.
🔚 Conclusion
Pakistan is at a critical crossroads. The compound risk of dwindling river inflows, dam depletion, and suspended water treaties endangers agriculture, food security, and exports. Immediate and coordinated actions—ranging from diplomacy to efficient water use—are vital to avert a full-blown water crisis
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